Supply and demand for platinum
The platinum market deficit is expected to break above 15.6t again in 2024. Demand is expected to hold steady at around 236.4t, with higher investment demand offset a slight decline in demand in the automotive and jewellery sectors, while industrial demand is broadly flat. On the supply side, the decline in Russian shipments (following a large number of inventory sales by producers in 2023) is likely to be offset by a slight increase in vehicle recycling and a slight increase in mineral supplies from Zimbabwe and North America. South Africa's platinum supply is expected to be broadly flat, despite a slight decline, which will largely be compensated for by WIP releases in the producers' refining pipeline.
The rhodium market will remain in short supply, despite a 6% drop in automotive demand, a recovery in automotive catalyst recycling, and a slight recovery in South Africa as the backlog of semi-finished metals is refined and sold. Demand for rhodium in industrial applications is expected to increase by 9%. However, demand for rhodium in the glass industry will remain weak, and Chinese fiberglass producers are expected to further sell recycled rhodium to the market.
Automotive and industrial demand for rhodium gold is forecast to decline by 4% in 2024. The uncertainties mainly relate to automotive demand and how quickly glass manufacturers can sell rhodium gold.
Demand for both ruthenium and iridium is expected to rise this year. Iridium usage is expected to remain stable in all major application areas. With the gradual refining and sale of South Africa's WIP stocks, the increase in supply should be able to meet the increase in demand. Even as China imports a large amount of ruthenium in 2021, ruthenium market inventories remain high, and South African miners hold some of their inventories and can mobilize them to meet demand if needed.
Future industrial demand for platinum group metals
After 2024, industrial demand for platinum group metals is expected to continue to grow steadily. Industrial demand for platinum has stabilized at 87 to 90 tonnes over the past four years: the outlook for the glass fibre sector is favourable, with growth in energy transition applications, including sustainable fuels, PEM water electrolysis to hydrogen and fuel cells, more than offset the decline in demand in the traditional petroleum refining and reforming sector.
Ruthenium and iridium have benefited from both electrification and the development of a hydrogen economy, with vital electrochemical processes greatly stimulating demand for ruthenium and iridium. Given the availability of these two metals, it is essential to implement a strategy to save metal use and recycle scrap to ensure a balance between supply and demand. It is expected that the use of iridium and ruthenium will be phased out in some traditional applications, thereby increasing the availability of new uses.
The outlook for palladium and rhodium is currently bleak: high prices have been a major obstacle to the development of new applications in recent years. However, reduced demand and abundant supply of automotive exhaust catalysts will create new opportunities to harness these PGMs in industry, and PGM producers and processors have initiated research projects aimed at developing new uses.
Source: Johnson Matthey Platinum Group Metals Market Report 2024